Rich
At 01:02 PM 6/6/99 -0600, Bob Welch wrote:
>Dongsong :
>
>If you start with an imprecise or "uninformative" prior, then updating with
>new evidence will generate a more precise or informed posterior -- how much
>more informed depends on the likelihood's ability to discriminate.
>
>But Bayesian updating does not necessarily result in more precision -- the
>prior could have been very precise and the evidence a surprise given that
>prior -- this results in a less precise posterior.
>
>Eventually (as more and more "surprising" evidence is observed), the
>posterior becomes more precise as it concludes that the original priors were
>incorrect.
>
>Bob
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Dongsong Zeng <zengdong@pilot.msu.edu>
>To: uai@CS.ORST.EDU <uai@CS.ORST.EDU>
>Date: Friday, June 04, 1999 12:28 PM
>Subject: BN prior prob
>
>
>>Hi,
>>
>>if my Belief Networks starts with unprecise prior probabilities, can I get
>>precise results? How and Why? Any advices are highly appreciated.
>>
>>Thank you very much.
>>
>>
>> --
>>Dongsong Zeng
>>
>>Email:zengdong@pilot.msu.edu
>
>