ME 519 (ME 515): Risk and
reliability BaSED DESIGN
Fall 2007 Term
9/24-12/7/2007
Mondays and Wednesdays 10-11:50am
Rogers 440
Instructor:
Professor Irem Y. Tumer
Rogers
408
541-737-6627
Office
Hours: Wednesdays 1-3pm (available
by email all the time!)
Learning Outcomes:
By the completion of this course, students will be
able to:
Understand
and articulate risk and reliability concepts
Apply
standard risk analysis methods to large systems
Explore
failure and risk databases
Formulate
a research problem and present findings and research approach
Textbook:
No
textbook is assigned. Reading assignments will be handed out for selected
topics either from published articles or books. Suggested books for reading
include:
Probabilistic
Risk Assessment: Reliability
Engineering, Design, and Analysis
By
Henley and Kumamoto, IEEE Press, 1992.
Reliability
engineering: Modeling, Prediction, and Optimization
By
Blischke and Murthy, John Wiley & Sons, 2000.
Grading:
Homework (individual & teams) 30%
Midterm
Exam 30%
Research Project 40%
(Research proposal 5%, interim presentation 5%, final report 20%, oral
presentation 10%)
Homework Assignments:
á
Implementation exercises
on selected system (discuss system with instructor) (teams)
o
Selection of an example system, looking up
databases, list of potential failures, risks from published databases, FMEA,
FTA, Use of design repository
á
1-page summary and
in-class discussion of reading assignments (individual; 3 papers)
Research Project:
Expectations
from research project:
Literature search
on selected topic; a thorough discussion and analysis of the state-of-the-art
and existing gaps/needs; discussion of how system used for HW assignments could
be improved using research ideas (or selected approach); a plan of research
approach.
Deliverables: proposal, interim presentation, final report and
presentation)
Possible
Research Topics (discuss topic with instructor, 1st week!)
á
Failure modeling
á
Probabilistic design
á
Uncertainty analysis
á
Risk based design
á
Reliability modeling
á
Decision based design
Topics and Approximate
Schedule:
Week 1: LECTURE 1-2:
9/24-26: Basic Concepts
Introductions, Syllabus,
Library Use
Basic concepts and definitions:
Risk vs. Reliability, Hazards, Failures, Uncertainty sources
Selection of research
project topic (due next week; discuss with instructor)
HW1: Reading assignment
(summary due next week)
Week 2: LECTURE 3-4:
10/1-3: Reliability Engineering
Traditional design; Safety
Factors; Probabilistic Design
Reliability engineering;
Reliability measures
Reliability block diagrams
RP1: Research proposal
(due next week)
HW2: Reliability Measures
and reliability block diagram
Week 3: LECTURE 5-6: 10/8-10: Failure Definitions and Failure Databases
Failure: definitions and
modeling (HW vs SW failures; component vs system-level failures)
Failure and Reliability
Databases
HW3: Select system, list
failures & provide example of a failure or reliability data for selected
system (due next week)
Week 4: LECTURE 7-8:
10/15-17: Risk Analysis Methods
Failure modes and effects
analysis (FMEA), Criticality analysis (CA)
HW4: Generate FMECA for
selected system (due next week)
Week 5: LECTURE 9-10:
10/22-24: Risk Analysis Methods
Fault Tree Analysis (FTA),
Event Tree Analysis (ETA), Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)
HW5: Generate FTA for
selected system and compare to FMECA results (due in 2 weeks)
Week 6: LECTURE 11-12:
10/29-31: Exam
Midterm Exam (basic
concepts and definitions in risk based design, failures, uncertainty,
probabilistic design, reliability measures, and exercises in FMECA, FTA,
databases, reliability block diagrams)
Risk based design: risk
considerations in early design stages
Week 7: LECTURE 13-14:
11/5-7: RBD Research Methods
Failure analysis during
functional design (FFDM)
Design repository
HW6: Use of design
repository for selected system (due in 2 weeks)
RP2: Interim progress
presentations due this week (10 minutes)
Week 8: LECTURE 15-16:
11/12-14: RBD Research Methods
Functional failure
identification and propagation (FFIP)
HW7: Reading assignment
(summary due next week)
Week 9: LECTURE 17-18:
11/19-21: RBD Research Methods
(Thanksgiving week)
Cost-benefit analysis (CBA)
Course summary
HW8: Reading assignment
(summary due next week)
Week 10: LECTURE 19-20:
11/26-28: Project Presentations
RP3: Project presentations
due this week (20 minutes)
RP4: Final project reports
due.
Finals week: 12/3-7
No final exam.