[UAI] Re: Bbn Probability Accuracy

From: Hans van Leijen (h.vleijen@nyenrode.nl)
Date: Thu Feb 08 2001 - 12:04:55 PST

  • Next message: Judea Pearl: "[UAI] Herbert Simon"

    What the network says is, "given the data, AND assuming the independencies
    represented in the naive Bayes model are correct, I'm 95% accurate".

    Probably, the assumptions inherent in your naive model are violated to some
    extent. For example, suppose someone's job type is "Manager" and there are
    two questions "Salary" and "Tendency to delegate tasks". Your naive model
    says that within the class of managers, there is no relationship between
    these two variables, whereas I believe that high-paid managers are even
    more eager to delegate.

    So, to answer your second question, my guess would be to perform a
    factor analysis to group questions into categories, create nodes for
    those categories, and make questions children of their category. That way,
    covariances among findings are represented by the mutual dependence of
    findings via their parent; such a covariance would not be blocked by
    observation of the job type.

    regards,
    Hans.

    - --------------------------------------------------
    Hans van Leijen
    NOTION / Universiteit Nyenrode
    The Netherlands Business School
    Straatweg 25
    3621 BG Breukelen
    The Netherlands
    Phone: + 31 346 291313
    Fax: + 31 346 291250
    E-mail: h.vleijen@nyenrode.nl
    URL: http://www.nyenrode.nl/int/research_faculty/cscm/notion/notion.html



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