ME 515: Risk and reliability
BaSED DESIGN
Fall 2010 Term
Mondays and
Wednesdays 2:00-3:50pm
ROG 332
Course Web
Site: http://classes.engr.oregonstate.edu/mime/fall2010/me515/
Instructor:
Professor Irem Y. Tumer
Rogers
408
541-737-6627
Office
Hours: Wednesdays 4-6pm (available by email all the time!)
Learning Outcomes:
By the completion of this
course, students will be able to:
Understand
and articulate risk and reliability concepts
Apply
standard risk & reliability analysis methods to large engineering systems
Explore
failure and risk databases
Formulate
a research problem and present findings and research approach
Textbook:
No textbook is assigned. Reading assignments (RA)
will be handed out for selected topics either from published articles or books.
Suggested books for reading include:
Probabilistic
Risk Assessment: Reliability
Engineering, Design, and Analysis
By
Henley and Kumamoto, IEEE Press, 1992.
Reliability
engineering: Modeling, Prediction, and Optimization
By
Blischke and Murthy, John Wiley & Sons, 2000.
Grading:
Design Project 40%
(Proposal, RBD, Failure Databases, FMECA, FTA, FFIP, Report)
Exam 30% (Individual)
Research Project 30%
(Research proposal 5%, interim progress report 5%, oral presentation 10%, final
report 10%)
Reading Assignments (RA1-RA6):
Weekly reading assignments will be posted on the web
site. You are required to read the assignments every week, as it’ll help follow
the lecture content. Note that material in the reading assignment may be
included in the exam.
Design Project (DP):
Deliverables
(Due Wednesdays):
·
DP1: Proposal with case study and system description (and presentation)
·
DP2: Reliability measures and reliability block diagrams (individual
assignment)
·
DP3: List of potential failures, risks from published databases
·
DP4: FMEA results
·
DP5: FTA results
·
DP6: FFIP analysis results
·
DP7: Summary report for case study putting all the results together
Case
Studies:
·
Oil industry: e.g., Deepwater Horizon accident
·
Automotive industry: e.g., Toyota accident
·
Nuclear industry: e.g., Three mile island accident
·
Space industry: e.g., Challenger shuttle accident
Summary Report Expectations: The final report will
describe the case study and system, and will combine all the assignments and
compare results/findings from each analysis method.
Research Project (RP):
Research
Topics (select one per team)
·
Reliability based design optimization
·
Utility based decision making
·
Uncertainty analysis
·
Robust design
Deliverables
(Due Wednesdays):
·
RP1: Proposal (team assignment)
·
RP2: In-class paper discussion forum (team assignment: 1 seminal paper
per topic, per team)
·
RP3: Initial list and summary of literature search (individual
assignment)
·
RP4: Interim progress report (team assignment)
·
RP5: Oral presentation (team assignment---each team member must
participate)
·
RP6: Final report (team assignment)
Final
Report Expectations: The final report will
summarize the research findings to answer the following question: Could the research methods you’ve
discovered been used to design the system in your case study (by taking failure
and risk information into account early in the design process?) Is so, how? The final report should include
the following:
·
Background and literature search on selected topic
·
A thorough discussion and analysis of the state-of-the-art and existing
gaps/needs
·
A discussion of how system used for the selected design project case
study could be improved using research ideas (or selected approach)
·
A plan of research approach to implement the method(s)
In-Class Paper Discussion Forums: Each team will be
responsible for conducting a round-table discussion of a seminal journal paper
for their selected research topic.
This will require each team to reach a consensus on a paper to read and
analyze thoroughly, distribute to the rest of the team, present findings, and
prepare points of discussion during the round-table session.
Exam: There will be one exam on Wednesday, Week 7, that
will take up the entire 2 hour time slot on that day (2-3:50pm). The exam will be composed of exercises
and examples covered in the lectures, as well as the material contained in the
DP assignments, up to the end of Week 6.
Special Needs:
Students with documented disabilities
who may need accommodations, who have any emergency medical information the
instructor should know of, or who need special arrangements in the event of
evacuation, should make an appointment with the instructor as early as
possible, no later then the first week of the term. Accommodations
are collaborative efforts between students, faculty and Disability Access
Services (DAS). Students with accommodations approved through DAS are
responsible for contacting the faculty member in charge of the course prior to
or during the first week of the term to discuss accommodations. Students who
believe they are eligible for accommodations but who have not yet obtained
approval through DAS should contact DAS immediately at 737-4098.
Academic
Integrity:
Academic dishonesty is prohibited and
considered a violation of the OSU Student Conduct Regulations. It includes
cheating, the intentional use of unauthorized materials, information, or study
aids); fabrication, assisting in dishonesty or tampering (intentionally or
knowingly helping or attempting to help another commit an act of dishonesty or
tampering with evaluation instruments and documents); and plagiarism,
intentionally or knowingly representing the words or ideas of another person's
as ones' own. If you have a question regarding academic integrity, please
talk to the instructor or refer to the OSU student conduct homepage at http://osu.orst.edu/admin/stucon/index.htm.
Topics and
Approximate Schedule:
Week 1: LECTURE 1-2: 9/27-29:
Introduction to Risk
Introductions,
Syllabus, Library Use; Teaming; Basic concepts and definitions
Risk
vs. Uncertainty; Qualitative vs. quantitative risk; Risk analysis process
DP1 due next week: Brief proposal and presentation of selected case study
and system(s)
RA1: Reading Assignment for next week: Risk analysis and assessment
Week 2: LECTURE 3-4: 10/4-6:
Introduction to Reliability
Risk
vs. Reliability; Reliability engineering; Discussion of case studies
RP1 due next week: Research proposal and research meeting
RA2: Reading Assignment for next week: Reliability measures &
reliability block diagrams
Week 3: LECTURE 5-6:
10/11-13: Reliability Analysis
Reliability
measures; Reliability block diagrams
DP2 due next week: Reliability measures and reliability block diagrams
RP2 due next week: In-class paper discussion forum
RA3: Reading Assignment for next week: Failures mechanisms and reliability
databases
Week 4: LECTURE 7-8: 10/18-20:
Failure Modeling and Failure Databases
Failure:
definitions and modeling (HW vs. SW failures; component vs. system-level
failures)
Failure
and Reliability Databases
DP3 due next week: List of failures modes & a failure or reliability
data for system/case study
RP3 due next week: Initial literature survey summary (individual)
RA4: Reading Assignment for next week: Failures modes and effects analysis
Week 5: LECTURE 9-10: 10/25-27:
Risk Analysis Methods
Failure
modes and effects analysis (FMEA), Criticality analysis (CA)
Introduction
to Item Software
DP4 due next week: FMECA for selected system and case study
RA5: Reading Assignment for next week: Fault tree analysis & event
tree analysis
Week 6: LECTURE 11-12: 11/1-3:
Risk Analysis Methods
Fault
Tree Analysis (FTA), Event Tree Analysis (ETA), Probabilistic Risk Assessment
(PRA)
DP5 due Week 8: FTA for selected system and case study
RP4 due next week: Interim progress report
Week 7: LECTURE 13-14: 11/8-10:
Risk Analysis Methods
Risk
based design: risk considerations in early design stages; Exam review
Midterm Exam (Wednesday): Basic concepts and definitions in risk based design,
failures, uncertainty, probabilistic design, reliability measures, and
exercises in FMECA, FTA, databases, reliability block diagrams
RA6: Reading Assignment for next week: Functional failure identification
and propagation analysis
Week 8: LECTURE 15-16: 11/15-17:
Risk Based Design Methods
Risk
based design: risk considerations in early design stages
Functional
failure identification and propagation (FFIP)
DP6 due Week 10: FFIP analysis for selected system and case study
RA7: Reading Assignment for next week: Additional risk based design
methods
Week 9: LECTURE 17-18:
11/22-24: Risk Based Design Methods (Thanksgiving
week)
Functional
failure identification and propagation (FFIP)
DP7 due Finals Week (Monday): Case study and system analysis summary
report
RP5 due next week: Project presentations (20 minutes)
Week 10: LECTURE 19-20:
11/29-12/1: Project Presentations
RP6 due Finals Week (Monday): Final research project report