Copyright David Ullman, Camas Inc.
65
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Step 8: Determine decision-maker’s belief. 3/3
•
Note the evaluation risk in this level of belief.
•
Evaluation risk
The risk of choosing a poor alternative
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Knowledge
Confidence
Evaluation
Risk
.4
.3
.2
.1
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9