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Hello Nicandro, Hello to everybody,
I have conducted two experimental studies in which belief updates of a =
Bayesian Network were compared with updates of subjects in an everyday =
inference situation. In the experiments subjects were successively =
presented traffic related information and had to judge the likelihood of =
a traffic jam.=20
The results indicate that the Bayesian Network predicts updates of =
subjects quite accurately. What might be important from the viewpoint of =
Cognitive Psychology is that there were no systematic deviations in the =
form of conservatism as has been reported in the literature on human =
probabilistic information processing. Bayesian networks therefore do =
seem to capture some important aspects of human intuitive belief =
updating and can help to resolve theoretical questions in human =
judgement and decision making.
References:
An English journal paper on this is currently under revision:
- Plach, M. (under revision). Bayesian Networks as Models of Human =
Judgement Under Uncertainty, Kognitionswissenschaft (special issue on =
Cognitive Modeling)
I hope to be able to let you know about the complete reference in about =
2 weeks. If you are interested I will be happy to send you a preprint in =
advance.
There is also a book (published dissertation) in German:=20
- Plach, M. (1998). Prozesse der Urteilsrevision: Kognitive Modellierung =
der Verarbeitung unsicheren Wissens. [The revision of uncertain belief: =
a cognitive modeling approach.] Wiesbaden: DUV.
Best regards
Marcus
*********************************
Dr. Marcus Plach
Universit=E4t des Saarlandes
Fachrichtung 6.4, Psychologie
Postfach 151150
D-66041 Saarbr=FCcken
phone: +49(0)681/302-2338
fax: +49(0)681/302-4640
E-mail: marcus@cops.uni-sb.de=20
*********************************
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Hello Nicandro, Hello to everybody,
I have conducted two experimental studies in which belief updates of = a=20 Bayesian Network were compared with updates of subjects in an everyday = inference=20 situation. In the experiments subjects were successively presented = traffic=20 related information and had to judge the likelihood of a traffic jam. =
The results indicate that the Bayesian Network predicts updates of = subjects=20 quite accurately. What might be important from the viewpoint of = Cognitive=20 Psychology is that there were no systematic deviations in the form of=20 conservatism as has been reported in the literature on human = probabilistic=20 information processing. Bayesian networks therefore do seem to capture = some=20 important aspects of human intuitive belief updating and can help to = resolve=20 theoretical questions in human judgement and decision making.
References:
An English journal paper on this is currently under revision:
- Plach, M. (under revision). Bayesian Networks as Models of Human = Judgement=20 Under Uncertainty, Kognitionswissenschaft (special issue on Cognitive=20 Modeling)
I hope to be able to let you know about the complete reference in = about 2=20 weeks. If you are interested I will be happy to send you a preprint in=20 advance.
There is also a book (published dissertation) in German:
- Plach, M. (1998). Prozesse der Urteilsrevision: Kognitive = Modellierung der=20 Verarbeitung unsicheren Wissens. [The revision of uncertain belief: a = cognitive=20 modeling approach.] Wiesbaden: DUV.
Best regards
Marcus
*********************************
Dr. Marcus Plach
Universität des=20 Saarlandes*********************************