UNCERTAINTY
Its Nature, Analytical Treatment and Interpretation
10-11 February 2000
Key Bridge Marriott
Arlington, Virginia
This two-day forum on uncertainty will bring together theorists
and practitioners in risk analysis, policy making, philosophy
and computer science to address the emerging issues about what
it means to admit we're unsure. The questions to be addressed
include
What’s the real difference between wishful
thinking and a prudent assumption?
Is it essential to distinguish uncertainty
from variability and ambiguity?
Can Bayesian rationality be consistent with
open and democratic decision making?
Is probability theory the only consistent
approach for handling uncertainty?
What are the practical implications of
epistemological constraints?
When is a decision defensible even if the
data it’s based on are incomplete?
Do bright-line definitions of ‘adverse
effects’ thwart optimal decision making?
The conference is intended as a forum for discussion and
debate, rather than merely a teaching workshop. The forum
will be focused by short presentations by invited speakers
and will allow ample time for open-format discussion and
debate among all participants. Speakers include
Timothy Barry, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Vicki Bier, University of Wisconsin at Madison
Rosina Bierbaum, Environment Director, White House OSTP
Todd Bridges, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Mark Colyvan, University of Tasmania
Douglas Dixon, Electric Power Research Institute
Scott Ferson, Applied Biomathematics, (organizer)
Adam Finkel, Director of Health Standards, OSHA
Kathryn Blackmond Laskey, George Mason University
Deborah Mayo, Virginia Polytechnic Institute
Richard Neapolitan, Northeastern Illinois University
Teddy Seidenfeld, Carnegie Mellon University
Ronald Yager, Iona College
The forum is sponsored by the Society for Risk Analysis,
with co-sponsorship by the U.S. Army Engineer Research
and Development Center and the Electric Power Research
Insitute.
The deadline for early registration is 26 January 2000.
Consult the webpage http://www.ramas.com/feb1011.htm for
more information and registration details.
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