Re: [UAI] how to evaluate approximate algorithms when exact solution is not available?

From: Gordon Hazen (Hazen@iems.northwestern.edu)
Date: Fri May 11 2001 - 18:49:13 PDT

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    Empirical studies would be interesting. Why not run an exact algorithm if
    one has huge amounts of time available? Because, as I understand it,
    peformance for Gibbs is linear in problem size, whereas performance for an
    exact algorithm is exponential in problem size.

    -- Gordon

    At 10:27 AM 5/10/01 -0700, Rina Dechter wrote:
    >Gordon,
    >
    > >From our (perhaps limited) experience with Gibbs sampling, in practice
    >it often exhibits very poor perfomance as a function of time (namely
    >as an anytime algorithm). Convergence takes too long and is
    >unpredictale.
    >And, if one can effort to spend huge amounts of times to get
    >convergence,
    >it seems better to spend that time on running the exact algorithm,
    >instead.
    >
    >I wonder if there are any empirical studies of
    >Gibbs sampling. I understand that in practice enhancement such as
    >likelihood weighting seems to be far better.
    >
    >----Rina.
    >
    >Gordon Hazen wrote:
    > >
    > > Marek or anyone:
    > >
    > > The statement that
    > >
    > > > > I have seen some people comparing approximation reults to each other
    > > > > (comparing to Gibbs sampling for instance) however such comparisons are
    > > > > meaningless, I think.
    > >
    > > surprised me a little. I haven't actually tried to use Gibbs sampling or
    > > MC Monti Carlo, but aren't these algorithms known to converge to the
    > > correct posteriors? MC Monti Carlo would have been my suggestion to help
    > > evaluate the quality of approximation algorithms on large Bayes nets. Are
    > > there difficulties I'm not aware of? I know that the convergence proof for
    > > MC Monti Carlo is compromised by too many zero conditional probabilities -
    > > is this the problem?
    > >
    > > Thanks,
    > >
    > > Gordon Hazen
    > >
    > > At 11:32 AM 5/8/01 -0700, Marek J. Druzdzel wrote:
    > > >- --On Monday, May 07, 2001, 11:56 AM -0700 Rina Dechter
    > > ><dechter@ics.uci.edu> wrote:
    > > >
    > > > > The question of evaluating the quality of an approximation to
    > > > > probabilistic inference is really a very important one and a difficult
    > > > > one, with which we also struggle with in Irvine.
    > > > >
    > > > > Sometimes it is possible to generate by an approximation an upper and
    > > > > lower bounds of the exact probability which can bound provide some
    > > > > estimate of the accuracy.
    > > > > However, such methods are often very inaccurate.
    > > > > Therefore one produces arbitrary approximations (no guarantees).
    > > > > In that case, I dont see any other way but to test your approximation
    > > > > algorithm on relatively small or moderate networks and compare against
    > > > > the exact figure (computed by an exact algorithm) with the
    > > > > hope that the information gained from such comparison scales up.
    > > > > You can then try too show superiority relative to other
    > > > > competing approximation algorithms.
    > > >
    > > >I agree with Rina here. I suggest that you find some networks that are
    > > >large or complex enough for your algorithm to be challenging and yet
    > > >solvable using exact methods. This is the approach that my doctoral
    > > >student, Jian Cheng, and I followed when testing stochastic sampling
    > > >algorithms (e.g.,
    > http://www.jair.org/abstracts/cheng00a.html). Unless you
    > > >have a good theory for putting bounds on your posteriors (we have a
    > > >forthcoming UAI paper along these lines; still we test this approach by
    > > >comparing the results to exact answers!), only when you have exact answers
    > > >can you saying anything meaningful about your approximate results.
    > > >
    > > > > I have seen some people comparing approximation reults to each other
    > > > > (comparing to Gibbs sampling for instance) however such comparisons are
    > > > > meaningless, I think.
    > > >
    > > >I agree here.
    > > >
    > > >Marek
    > > >--------------------------------------------------------------------------
    > > >Marek J. Druzdzel http://www.pitt.edu/~druzdzel
    > > >
    > >
    > > Gordon Hazen
    > > IE/MS Department, McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Science
    > > Northwestern University, Evanston, IL. USA 60208-3119
    > > Phone 847-491-5673 Fax 847-491-8005
    > > Web: www.iems.nwu.edu/~hazen/
    >
    >--
    >-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
    >Rina Dechter dechter@ics.uci.edu
    >Information and Computer Science Dept. (949) 824-6556
    >University of California, Irvine fax: (949)-824-4056
    >Irvine, CA 92717
    >http://www.ics.uci.edu/~dechter

    Gordon Hazen
    IE/MS Department, McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Science
    Northwestern University, Evanston, IL. USA 60208-3119
    Phone 847-491-5673 Fax 847-491-8005
    Web: www.iems.nwu.edu/~hazen/



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