Hi,
I am looking to undertake a spatial risk assessment for the Great =
Barrier Reef Marine Park, which will take into considertaion the =
combined influences of cyclones, bleaching (elevated SST), flood plumes, =
and crown-of-thorn starfish (COTS). For example I would like to be able =
to provide a solution to the question, "What is the likelihood that a =
given coral reef will receive damage (of a certain degree) within a =
given time-frame".
Sufficient spatial predictive modelling has been done for all quantities =
(perhaps not the COTS), for me to assign the likelihood of occurrence =
for each hazard for different return periods. Obviously there is some =
correlation in the occurence of the different hazards (e.g. =
cyclone/flood plumes). The data sources can also be considered to be of =
different spatial resolution and accuracy.=20
I like the thought of being able to frame the combined risk assessment =
in terms of a spatial Bayesian Belief Network.=20
Is anyone aware of any software/code that has been written which could =
adequately address the spatial nature of this problem (i.e. BBN within a =
raster/GIS based structure)?
I have no practical experience with the implementation of BBNs and would =
enjoy hearing people's comments on the suitability of BBNs to the above =
problem.
Any better suggestions?
Many Thanks,
scott
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Dr Scott Wooldridge
Spatial Analyst, Reef Futures Group
Australian Institute of Marine Science
PMB No. 3, Townsville MC Qld 4810
Telephone: (07) 47534334
Facsimile: (07) 47725852=20
E-mail: s.wooldridge@aims.gov.au
"the future belongs to those who see the possibilities before they =
become obvious" Theodore Leavitt
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